The Line: Michigan (-192) vs. Indiana (+154).
Indiana Hoosiers under Head Coach Tom Allen look highly improved through two games to start the season. Michigan, I will say outright; I am suspect about because of how slow and sluggish they were starting in their last two games. That will benefit Indiana in this contest. You are only as good as your last game. Indiana won over Rutgers 37-21. Michigan lost to Michigan State 27-24.
Two highly physical BIG 10 defenses stepping on the field for this game. This means FIELD POSITION will be key! Indiana has a premier receiver (Whop Philyor), a power rusher (Stevie Scott III) and a quarterback that can get the job done (Michael Penix Jr.). Michigan worries me on offense the way Head Coach Harbaugh relies so heavily on passing with Joe Milton before establishing the run. Indiana does struggle to run the ball but this will be a situational running game for them if they win the field position battle. Which I expect them too.
Indiana is improving at keeping drives alive completing 46.9% of the time on third down. Opposed to Michigan completing 39.1% of their third downs. Indiana is dominating time of possession with a possession time of 33 minutes and 44 seconds per game. Opposed to Michigan with a 29 minute 32 second possession time. One thing I didn’t like seeing last week was the inaccuracies from Joe Milton. He’s at 73 passes attempted with 1 touchdown to show for it. You can’t just hand it off and beat this Hoosier defense. One thing that stood out from last week was Hoosier quarterback Michael Phenix Jr. is throwing a good deep ball right now. A 58.1% completion percentage that is trending up.
Bottom line. I like what I’m seeing from the Hoosiers offense. They can score 25 points and still somehow lose because it’s the big 10. However, this game is in Bloomington Indiana. Michigan traveling after a loss to their inter-state rival, which wasn’t their defenses fault … doesn’t sound comfortable. Maybe there is a lot to do in Bloomington but with covid-19 going on the most fun the Hoosiers players are having is a game of kick-the-can around. I see Michigan running into a wall here early on against the Hoosiers. Later on the Wolverines could rally but who the hell cares? Will all be eating barbecue and the Hoosiers will go over their team points. Pass me the liter of cola will ya?
My Pick: Indiana Hoosiers OVER 24.5 Team Total Points (+100).
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